With such a tight race between the two major-party candidates, the Libertarian candidate for governor, Chad Grimm, and his running mate, Alexander “AJ” Cummings, could pull away just enough votes from either candidate to sway the whole thing.

From the Peoria Journal-Star:

The long-shot campaign of Grimm, a gym manager and physician, has drawn substantial notice in recent days, with a GOP-sponsored mailer accusing his candidacy of being a tool of the incumbent, Quinn. Meanwhile, Grimm and Cummings have received financial and logistical backing from the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150, which has been public about its opposition to Rauner.

The third-party candidate has appealed to voters who feel that their choices are limited with Democrats and Republicans.

From the Journal-Star:

At the same time, several polls have shown the duo clearing the 5 percent threshold of support necessary to make the Libertarians an established party, granting them ballot access on par with Republicans and Democrats over the next four years.

“People feel as if they’re pawns in a game in this state,” Grimm said of the fights between the two established parties.

The Libertarian’s campaign platforms deviate from the issues that have been at the center of discussion during this election cycle: Grimm told the Journal-Star that if elected, he would work to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Common Core curriculums and laws that punish drug offenders and weapons holders. Grimm also called himself the “only pro-life, pro-gun [candidate],” the Journal-Star said.

Libertarians are often traditionally seen as pulling votes from Republicans, due to their small-government ideals, pro-gun positions and hands-off approach to business regulation, but many left-leaning voters may opt to cast their votes for the Libertarians this year as well.

From the Journal-Star:

Their positions on loosening drug laws, though, are more likely to draw support from the left, leading Grimm to argue that the campaign is drawing fire from both sides trying to cherry-pick positions to highlight to make a voting public discard them.

“People on one side or the other side will use one part or the other of our platforms to pit one side against the other,” he said during a meeting last weekend with Cummings and two campaign advisers to which he invited the Peoria Journal Star.

The Libertarian candidates for all statewide offices up for election this year had to plead their cases to even appear on the ballot. Their popularity this year, the Journal-Star reported, could prove enough to consider them an “established party” in future elections. (In order to receive automatic ballot inclusion in Illinois, third parties must have received at least 5 percent of the vote in the previous election, which many polls show these Libertarians poised to do.)

That doesn’t mean it’s smooth sailing for them, though.

From the Journal-Star:

They do still have significant hurdles to clear to attract voters though, said Bradley University political science professor Ed Burmila.

“Simply getting voters aware of the third party candidates can be a challenge, and once you convince them you exist, you have to convince them that they’re not throwing away their vote by voting for you,” he said.

Burmila told the paper that young people, people without strong party affiliations and people who have grown frustrated with the traditional two-party system are the most likely to vote for third-party candidates.

Burmila said at this point, anything could happen with the numbers among all three gubernatorial candidates:

“There is a substantial amount of uncertainty in all the poll results we’ve seen,” Burmila said.

That uncertainty is part of what has made this race so exciting, said WNRJ radio. The race, which the station called a “nailbiter,” has focused on high-impact issues such as jobs, economic security for the state and pensions. Plus, there is still no clear view of who will win. 

At first, said WNRJ, Illinois voters were fed up with Quinn and ready for some new leadership. Rauner capitalized on that sentiment and made an early campaign push. But now neither can be seen as the clear frontrunner.

From WNRJ:

Rauner’s early investment worked. By August, a Politico poll showed the challenger’s approval ratings at 51%, while the incumbent Governor’s numbers slumped to 33%. Today, most polls show Quinn with a lead that’s within the margin of error. So what happened to Rauner?

Political Scientist Matt Streb told WNRJ that Quinn’s surging poll numbers don’t necessarily mean people actually like him more, just that they don’t know what to make of Rauner and feel “more comfortable” with a known variable like Quinn.

The radio station also pointed out that Grimm could throw a wrench in the other candidates’ plans, but Streb said his power might not be as large as predicted:

A recent Chicago Tribune poll gives Grimm 4% of voter support, but experts like Streb are cautious about this poll. “The number-one rule of thumb about third-party candidates is you take how they’re doing in the most recent poll, and you cut that in half,” Streb says. “It costs me nothing to say I’m going to vote for a Libertarian candidate in a poll.” When voters enter the voting booth, says Streb, they have to confront the question of whether they’d be wasting their vote.

There are more uncertainties: Quinn may be leading in the polls now, but Rauner has spent a lot more money on ads and getting his message out. He’s also from Cook County, which could help him snag votes in a traditionally Democratic area. On the other hand, non-binding ballot questions about the minimum wage and birth control could help turn out Democratic voters, giving a boost to Quinn.

No matter who wins, the drama won’t end on Nov. 4. Either candidate would have to actually start to tackle the problems they promised to fix during the campaign.

 

NEXT ARTICLE: Shaw: Informed, engaged voters needed for 2014 Illinois election

 

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    Caitlin Wilson is a staff writer for Reboot Illinois. She graduated from Loyola University Chicago, where she studied journalism and political science. Caitlin has become both endeared to and frustrated with her adopted home state and wants to bring Illinoisans the information they need to actively participate in the politics that directly affect them.  You can find Reboot on Facebook here and on Twitter at @rebootillinois.