Prisons vastly are overcrowded. College tuition is rising fast. Roads and bridges are crumbling. Public pensions are on the verge of disaster.

Why is Illinois state government so inept? While public problems are inherently difficult to solve, Illinois seems to be particularly adrift these days.

One explanation for this phenomenon is the dearth of valid and reliable evidence used in public policymaking. We live at a time of unprecedented knowledge about the physical world and the human condition, and scientists by the thousands on university campuses and in private industry are working daily to increase this body of knowledge. Do we know everything? Of course not. But we do know more policy-relevant information now than ever before.

There are understandable, if not justifiable, reasons for the lack of a more rational and evidence-based public policy.

First, in the legislature and on the campaign trail, much policy argument is supported by anecdote rather than by valid and reliable evidence. A colorful example of a problem can be good political fodder for moving a proposal along the process, but such an example often differs significantly from the average instance of a problem. And as such, policy made with this information will be biased in some way.

People also overestimate the probability of events that are especially vivid. For instance, crime is vividly and frequently portrayed in the news. This causes people to believe that there is more crime than is in fact the case. Crime rates have been dropping for years, but people believe otherwise. This misperception not only affects lawmakers themselves, it also affects the pressures they receive from their constituents.

Rationality in policymaking is also reduced by the fear of political reprisal. Lawmakers typically consider how a given decision might determine whether they will win or lose at the polls. This is a good thing in a representative democracy because it helps to hold officials accountable to voters. But lawmakers’ over-concern with the contents of the next opposition mailer can keep them from listening to the evidence on an issue. For instance, the morbid fear of being portrayed as “soft on crime” by an opponent has led to a dangerous and irrational ratcheting up of criminal laws and penalties. And that has helped push our national incarceration rate to be the highest in the world—by far.

Legislative logrolling can also limit the quality and quantity of evidence used in policymaking. This practice of trading votes to get legislation passed is especially common for big infrastructure projects, where concrete is spread around the state according to political need or clout rather than the objective need for roads, bridges, and water systems. Engineers have exacting standard for determining infrastructure needs, and their input is certainly not completely ignored. But even at the margins, logrolling can bias overall policy. Likewise, passing significant school financing reform in the state often is determined by how a particular scheme would affect various lawmakers’ district schools rather than any standard related to education. Logrolling may get things done in Springfield, but it can also bias policy.

Is data the only thing we need to make good public policy? Should Illinois be turned into a technocratic system run by college professors and other scientists? The answer to both questions is no. Values and preferences must always play a strong role in policymaking. Not every policy question can be settled by science. But the deliberation of many issues could undoubtedly be enhanced by the introduction of valid and reliable evidence. Even good values, when applied to the wrong facts — or to no facts at all — can lead to poor decisions and poor public policy.

 

NEXT ARTICLE: New book explores ways to fix Illinois politics and policy

 

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