WHAT DO QUINN AND RAUNER EACH NEED TO DO TO WIN THE GOVERNOR’S RACE?

Republican George Ryan was elected Illinois governor in 1998.  He defeated Democrat Glenn Poshard, southern Illinois’ favorite son, by almost 120,000 votes.  Since 1998, Illinois Republicans have lost the next three gubernatorial elections to Rod Blagojevich in 2002 and 2006 and to Pat Quinn in 2010.  As will be seen in this article, keying the Democratic gubernatorial political swing has been the party’s improved popularity in suburban Cook County and to a lesser degree, the five collar counties.  And, though these two regions will be the lead actors in determining the 2014 race – the two other regional vote producers —  Chicago and downstate — will, of course, also play critical supporting roles.

A. Chicago

In the 2010 race for Governor, Quinn won only four of Illinois’ 102 counties. However, one of those counties was Cook – the home of the City of Chicago.  Quinn garnered more than 75% of the city vote and had a victory margin over his Republican foe, state Sen. Bill Brady of 400,000 votes.  By comparison in 1998, Poshard beat George Ryan in Chicago by a little over 238,000 votes – as Ryan won 31% of the city’s vote.

Clearly, 1998 was an unusual contest.  Many Chicago voters believed Ryan was more attuned to their thinking on social issues than the conservative downstate Democrat.  This latter point is key as to how much Quinn will beat Rauner in the city.  In the seven straight Republican gubernatorial victories between 1976 and 1998 – the GOP victor never received less than a fourth of the Windy City vote.  In 2010, Brady’s Chicago percentage was 17.4%.

Rauner’s objective in Chicago must be two-fold.  First, obviously reach voters disenchanted with the state’s fiscal condition along the lakefront, the hipster near west side and the far northwest and southwest sides.  Second, he needs to make the campaign “boring” to help limit turnout in African-American and Hispanic wards.  Given these two goals, voters can be assured that Rauner will not discuss or explain his views on controversial social issues.

As for Quinn – his Chicago game plan will be the exact opposite of Rauner’s strategy.  Quinn needs Chicago to come alive in ’14.  He needs a huge minority vote turnout – plus he must stress the social issues – along the lakefront and on the near west side.  And lastly on the northwest and southwest sides,  he must talk about “income inequity” – whether it’s Rauner’s personal wealth or his wealthy close friends’ huge donations to his campaign.

No matter how many Chicagoans vote – Rauner could be in trouble if he falls below 20% of the city vote.

B.  Suburban Cook County – 30 Townships

From 1976 to 1998, Republican gubernatorial candidates won seven straight victories (Jim Thompson – 4; Jim Edgar – 2; George Ryan – 1).  In every one of those elections, the GOP candidate carried suburban Cook County by at least 100,000 votes.  In fact, Ryan’s 1998 win was the lowest victory margin for a Republican candidate (109,000 votes/57.6%) in the party’s “mansion” winning streak.  To some observers (including me) this margin drop-off was an omen of real demographic political change taking place in suburban Cook.  In the three Democratic gubernatorial wins since 1998, their candidate has won suburban Cook – thereby adding to and not subtracting from the expected margin win in Chicago. (The vote margin numbers:  2002 – 50,924; 2006 – 103,880; 2010 – 100,250.)

Clearly, Rauner needs to reestablish a solid GOP vote in suburban Cook.  He could do that by doing better than expected in the heavily minority south suburbs, convincing wealthy north suburban residents that his business background can fix the state’s fiscal woes or winning back once rock-rib GOP voters living in northwest and southwest townships and convincing them that he can not only win, but in doing so can resurrect the Republican party statewide.  It is indeed a mighty task, but for Rauner to beat Quinn in 2014 he must do some or all of the above.  Why?  I do not believe it is an overstatement to predict “as goes suburban Cook – so goes the state.” Said another way, “Whoever wins suburban Cook will be sworn in as Illinois governor in 2015.”

C. Collar Counties (DuPage – Kane – Lake – McHenry – Will)

These counties ring Cook County and a few decades ago were the bedrock of Republican vote power in Illinois.  In the three recent GOP gubernatorial losses, the party’s once massive victory margins have dramatically dwindled.  The following is an incredible statistic – especially for long-time observers of statewide politics in Illinois.  If one adds up suburban Cook Democratic victory margins for all three recent gubernatorial elections and does the same for collar county Republican victory margins in the same elections, the latter’s total is less than 50,000 votes greater.

Personal note: Many years ago (ok – decades) when I wrote for Illinois Issues magazine, my mantra in state elections was “downstate holds the key to victory.”  The reasoning was simple: Chicago’s Democratic vote margin strength was offset by suburban Cook and collar county (the so-called suburban 5 ½) vote margin power – thereby making the other 96 downstate Illinois counties the balance of power.  In 2010, Quinn’s Chicago margin was 400,303 votes, his suburban Cook margin was 100,250 for a Cook County margin total of 500,553 votes.  His opponent, Bill Brady – won the collars by 120,484 votes – giving Quinn a 380,069-vote cushion going downstate.  Brady won downstate by a whopping 348,235 votes – but it was not enough as Quinn won the state by 31,834 votes.  All of this data suggests my old theory is dated – downstate no longer is the balance of power because the suburban 5 ½ in recent gubernatorial elections have not given GOP candidates enough vote muscle to counter Chicago.

Obviously, Rauner needs to go all out in the collars – especially Lake and Will counties, which have become politically competitive in recent elections.  In Rauner’s favor to re-stamp the collars “GOP land” is 1) his primary performance against his main challenger state Sen. Kirk Dillard – a longtime DuPage county legislator and 2) the fact that Lake County gave Rauner his largest collar county victory margin.  By sweeping the collars and demonstrating strong support in Lake County, Rauner needs to transfer his primary popularity to a general election vote juggernaut in the collars.

D. Downstate (DS – 96)

This huge expanse of land has many pockets of party vote strength.  Even during the GOP run of seven straight victories, losing Democratic candidates sometimes ran well downstate (Neil Hartigan 1990- 48%; Glen Poshard 1998 – 49%).  In 2010, McLean County resident Brady overwhelmed Quinn with his 348,235 vote margin as he carried 93 of 96 downstate counties – but as has been shown it was not enough.

Both Quinn and Rauner have worries about downstate voters in November.  In the 2014 Democratic primary, Quinn lost 30 counties to little-known fellow Chicagoan Tio Hardiman.  Most of Hardiman’s county wins were in southern Illinois where Democratic voters knew almost nothing about Hardiman and cared even less — he simply was not Quinn.  The reasons for the governor’s unpopularity in southern Illinois could be debated (e.g., closing of state facilities or not having Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon of Carbondale and Jackson County running with him for re-election) but whatever the factors, Quinn is in deep trouble in the lower part of Illinois.

As for Rauner, central Illinois looms as a potential headache.  His main primary opponent, Dillard (who had the advantage of a downstate running mate – state Rep. Jil Tracy of Quincy and Adams County) clobbered Rauner in the middle of the state.  To be sure, the other two primary candidates were central Illinois residents (Brady/McLean County and Dan Rutherford/Livingston County) who between them took nearly 30% of the downstate 96-county vote. Still Rauner was weak south of I-80.  Again, the circumstance of public employee union members rallying late to Dillard was a major factor in his 39,000- vote victory margin over Rauner.  Still, Republican public employees (yes – central Illinois has many of them) were leery of Rauner’s statements on pensions and how he would close the state’s deficit.

Since both candidates have downstate dilemmas – each will use their vast campaign war chests to attack the other on secondary issues, like lifestyle, broken promises, past personal and political histories, etc., probably with heavy use of cartoons.

E. What will each candidate need to do to be standing tall at the 2015 inaugural ball?

First –and this fits both candidates – be able to raise “tons” of campaign dollars.

Now specifics –

Rauner

• Needs to make Quinn and to a lesser degree Democratic control of the Legislature  THE key fall campaign issue;
• Needs to energize many sleepy collar county/5½ GOP township organizations to work their precincts almost like the good old days;
• Needs to maintain his “float like a butterfly – sting like a bee” campaign strategy for another three months.  By avoiding specifics on many social issues and by using the phrase “due time” as to when he will be specific on fiscal issues, Rauner has been able to sail through the campaign largely on generalities while he stings Quinn on the latter’s many vulnerabilities;
• Turnout: The Who and the Where – this fits both candidates – who turns out and where are they from;
• Needs to convince central Illinois voters that he is not an anti-government “crusader;” rather, he is a “repairman.”  Too many voters depend on state government services and Rauner must avoid being labeled a north shore millionaire who has little connection to their needs. In short, he must, at all cost, avoid becoming “Romneyized.”

Quinn

• No secret here – needs the Democratic base voters especially in Chicago and Cook County’s south suburbs to get excited about beating Rauner;
• Needs no more “bad” news or at least no more terrible news about “hanky panky” tied to his administration;
• Could use some real good news on the state’s fiscal condition. Though I am a strong believer in separation of church and state, on this point,prayer may be in order for Quinn;
• Needs to challenge Rauner to debates on specific state issues. Experience is one of Quinn’s great weapons that has remained largely unused;
• Lastly, needs to show one and all that he is not a political outsider in the governor’s chair, but an incumbent governor who has a political outsider past.

Summary

Though recent polls show Rauner leading Quinn, much could change post-Labor Day.  Each candidate has a path to victory – admittedly a very expensive one – so unlike other statewide races, this contest will be won by the candidate who wins the campaign’s last two months.

Like in war, the victor is not always the general who does the most things right, but rather the one who does the least things wrong.  Both Quinn and Rauner and their strategists face 10 weeks of incredible stress as each side attempts to force the other into a “game change” blunder.

Next article: Why the Illinois governor’s race isn’t remotely ready to call

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