We knew 2014 would be a big year for Illinois politics because of the hotly contested race for governor and a brand new pension law that was expected to be challenged in court. But as we look back on the year about to end, we’re amazed at how 2014 exceeded our wildest expectations for political twists and turns.

Here’s a look at what we expected from 2014 going in and what actually happened.

Republican gubernatorial primary

What we expected: A tight, four-way race with Treasurer Dan Rutherford, state Sens. Kirk Dillard and Bill Brady, Treasurer Dan Rutherford and political newcomer Bruce Rauner attempting to win over the party’s most conservative faction without alienating the suburban independents and Democratic crossover vote they’d ultimately need to win in November. As 2014 dawned, Rutherford led in polling and he and Rauner were outpacing Dillard and Brady in fundraising.

What we got: On Jan. 31, Rutherford held a press conference in Chicago in which he accused Rauner of trying to sabotage his campaign after a treasurer’s office employee filed a harassment lawsuit against Rutherford. It was the start of a bizarre turn of events that included an investigation instigated by Rutherford that he said would exonerate him. But when Rutherford delayed releasing the report, the whole ordeal overtook his campaign. By the March 18 primary, the GOP race had become a Dillard-vs.-Rauner contest with Rauner enjoying a large lead in pre-election polling.

Unexpected twist: Rauner’s strong opposition to public employee unions mobilized union leadership and members to support the moderate suburbanite Dillard. Rauner’s double-digit lead in polls shrank to a 1.9-point margin of victory over Dillard, who got considerable help from Democrats who voted in the Republican primary. Rutherford finished a distant fourth with 4.9 percent.

Pension reform

What we expected: As soon as Gov. Pat Quinn signed the long-awaited pension reform bill into law in December 2013, the waiting began for the filing of a lawsuit challenging its constitutionality.

What we got: The first lawsuit arrived in January from the public employee union coalition We Are One Illinois. Four more followed and eventually were combined into a single lawsuit now making its way to the Illinois Supreme Court.

Unexpected twist: In July, the Illinois Supreme Court ruled in the case Kanerva v. Weems that the state’s plan to reduce health benefits to public retirees violated the Illinois Constitution’s pension protection clause. For many observers, this signaled that the full pension reform bill would meet the same fate when it arrives at the Illinois Supreme Court in spring 2015. (This post explains why.)

General election

Governor’s race

What we expected: A hard-fought, expensive race between Gov. Pat Quinn and Bruce Rauner that would shatter campaign finance records and probably end up just as close as Quinn’s narrow victory over Bill Brady in 2010.

What we got: A hard-fought, expensive race between Gov. Pat Quinn and Bruce Rauner that shattered campaign finance records. “Hard-fought” puts it mildly. This race came down to Quinn accusing Rauner repeatedly of being a “plutocrat” and hinting at wrongdoing in Rauner’s business career. Rauner, meanwhile, never missed an opportunity to label Quinn the “worst governor in America.”

Unexpected twist: From March until the end of summer, Rauner led in nearly every poll, often by double digits. But as fall arrived, Quinn overtook Rauner in the polls as unions mobilized against Rauner. By Nov. 4, most savvy observers believed Quinn would hold on to win re-election, helped by Democratic voter turnout driven by Democrat-friendly ballot questions (raising minimum wage, imposing a tax on millionaires, requiring contraceptive coverage by insurers and amending the constitution to protect voters’ rights). The surprise came a few hours after the polls closed, when Rauner was named the winner by a margin of 4 percentage points — a virtual landslide compared to expectations.

Treasurer’s race

What we expected: Republican State Rep. Tom Cross entered the race for state treasurer with more than a decade of statewide name recognition thanks to his  long service as House Republican Leader, a position that placed him opposite House Speaker Michael Madigan. Cross generally was viewed as the favorite against state Sen. Mike Frerichs, D-Champaign, and polling consistently showed him in the lead. Still, this race was expected to be competitive.

What we got: Frerichs pulled out a close victory, winning by .3 percentage points — a total of 9,225 votes.

Unexpected twist: New rules that allowed same-day voter registration and the popularity of early voting meant that thousands of ballots went uncounted until after the polls closed on Election Day. Cross had a lead of more than 21,000 votes in regular voting, but ballots counted after Election Day quickly turned the race into a contest that separated the candidates by only a few hundred votes out of more than 3.5 million cast. It took two weeks for the counting to be complete, and Cross conceded on Nov. 18.

Comptroller’s race 

What we expected: Republican incumbent Judy Baar Topinka would win re-election against Democrat Sheila Simon. Topinka’s strength was not rooted exclusively in her long record of service: three terms as state treasurer, an unsuccessful run for governor, a decade in the Illinois Senate and a term in the House. She had won a major union endorsement, had earned support among liberals for her support of same-sex marriage and generally was liked as the voice of financial reason in a state government that often chose not to listen. But Simon was a strong opponent in a heavily Democratic state, so no one expected a runaway victory.

What we got: Topinka won by 3.9 percentage points — 139,390 votes out of a total just shy of 3.6 million.

Unexpected twist: On Dec. 10, Topinka died from a blood clot after suffering a stroke the day before. Her sudden and unexpected death was a shock to her friends and to colleagues from both sides of the aisle. Hundreds turned out for a memorial service in which Topinka was eulogized as a blunt, straight-talker and very likely the last of her kind in Illinois politics. Gov. Pat Quinn appointed his budget director and former chief of staff Jerry Stermer as comptroller until Topinka’s current term ends Jan. 12.

What ultimately becomes of the four-year term Topinka would have begun in January remains unclear. Attorney General Lisa Madigan issued an opinion that said Gov.-elect Bruce Rauner has the authority to appoint someone to serve the whole term, though she suggested that a two-year appointment followed by a special election in 2016 would be a better option for voters. Quinn has called for a special legislative session on Jan. 8 for a possible vote on a 2016 election for comptroller, but House Speaker Michael Madigan so far has shown no interest in calling such a proposal for a vote.

Whatever the result, it’s sure to top next year’s list of twists and turns in Illinois politics.

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