Cost per vote in the Illinois governor’s race

Kevin Hoffman

REBOOT STAFF

Nov 12, 2014

The Illinois governor’s race was the epitome of big money politics, dwarfing all previous campaign spending records for the state’s highest office.

While fourth quarter expenditures won’t be filed until the Jan. 15 deadline, more than $100 million is believed to have been spent throughout the course of the campaign. Just as impressive is the total amount raised by Gov. Pat Quinn and Governor-elect Bruce Rauner. Between Oct. 1 and Nov. 4, Quinn reported $9.3 million in contributions; Rauner reaped $20.6 million — mostly from his own bank account.A tremendous sum of money was required to win votes in governor’s election, especially when a wealthy businessman is pit against a long-time politician backed by unions and progressive political action committees in a historically blue state. All this begets the question: how much did it cost per vote for each candidate?

Although the final campaign finance reports for expenditures are not yet available, by using spending figures from the third quarter, combined with the aforementioned contributions between Oct. 1 and Nov. 4, we’re able to get a ballpark estimate of what it cost each candidate per vote.

[Note: The cost per vote amounts below are rough estimates and won't be 100 percent accurate until fourth quarter spending figures are released in January].

Data from the Illinois State Board of Elections’ website and poll results from the Chicago Sun-Times’ “Election Central” were used to come up with these dollar amounts.

During the third quarter, Quinn spent $15.2 million and received $9.3 million in contributions between Oct. 1 and Election Day. Together, those two figures add up to roughly $24.5 million. Quinn received a little more than 1.60 million votes. Once the number of votes is divided by the dollar figure, it comes out to $15.26 per vote.

Now let’s apply the same formula for Rauner. The governor-elect reported $20.4 million in expenses and $20.6 million in contributions during the 35 days leading up to the election, totaling $41 million. Rauner garnered 1.78 million votes, costing him about $22.96 per ballot.

Voter turnout also plays a role in determining cost per ballot. With a measly 47 percent of the state’s 7.5 million registered voters showing up to the polls, the cost per vote increased.

Paul Merrion, the Washington bureau chief for Crain’s Chicago Business did a similar calculation on election day, using data from the Illinois State Board of Elections and input from Emeritus Professer Kent Redfield at the University of Illinois at Springfield.

The estimate assumes that the two candidates finish in a tie, with each candidate receiving the average number of votes cast for the two leading candidates in the 2010 governor’s race, Mr. Quinn and state Sen. Bill Brady. The estimate also assumes the candidates spend all the money they have raised.

Crain’s pre-election calculation compared the 2014 Illinois governor’s race to the last three gubernatorial elections, showing how costly each vote could be for Quinn and Rauner.

 

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   Kevin Hoffman is a Reboot Illinois staff writer who graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in journalism, political science and international studies. He believes keeping citizens informed and politicians in check is the best way to improve Illinois and bring about common sense reform.  Follow us on Facebook.