Bruce Rauner, the political outsider who built his gubernatorial platform on the single issue of fixing Illinois’ economy, on Tuesday appeared headed toward becoming the first Republican elected governor in Illinois since 1998, earning a decisive victory over incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn, though the Democrat would not concede.
Rauner, a highly successful businessman who poured more than $27 million of his own money into his campaign, won on a theme in which he vowed to “shake up Springfield” and break the grip of traditional power brokers in the Capitol – namely public employee unions and the Democrat-controlled Legislature.
NBC was the first news outlet to project Rauner the winner, calling the race at 10:15 p.m., when Rauner held a 5-percentage-point lead over Quinn with 88 percent of the vote counted. By 10:30, other news organizations had called the race for Rauner.
At 11:20 p.m. Quinn appeared before supporters at his Chicago election night party to say that he would not concede defeat until all votes had been counted. He said that in 2010, that did not happen until the Friday after the election.
Minutes later, Rauner took the stage at his election night event to deliver his victory speech.
“This is your victory. This is a victory for every family in Illinois. Are you ready for a new directiorn? Are you ready to bring back Illinois,” Rauner told supporters. “This is a victory for our taxpayers who need to have a lower tax burden. This is a victory for our workers who deserve to have a booming economy. This is a victory for our students, our children, who deserve the best schools in America.”
Rauner noted that his election marks a shift after 12 years of state government controlled by Democrats in both the legislative and executive branches.
“The voters have asked for divided government for the first time in many years… not so we can fight, not so we can bicker, not so we can get angry with each other,” Rauner said, noting that before his speech he had called the Legislature’s two Democratic leaders, House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton. “I said to them, this is an opportunity for us to work together. To come together on a bipartisan basis to solve the problems facing the families of Illinois.”
With $100 million spent by Rauner and Quinn, the election became by far the most expensive Illinois gubernatorial contest ever. It’s a record that is likely to stand for some time, as Rauner’s heavy contributions to his own campaign allowed the lifting of all contribution limits. Thus, the Democratic and Republican governor’s associations could give millions to each campaign, with wealthy individuals and organizations also chipping in six- and seven-figure contributions.
In electing Rauner, voters rejected Gov. Pat Quinn’s assertions that Illinois had been steadily recovering from the Great Recession and its own fiscal crises during his five-year governorship and that Rauner’s plan to let the state’s income tax fall by 25 percent on Jan. 1 would devastate education funding throughout the state.
In defeating Quinn, Rauner also defeated efforts by Quinn and anti-Rauner political action committees to portray Rauner as a cutthroat capitalist who valued profit above all else.
While Quinn ran on a platform of making permanent a temporary income tax increase he pushed through the General Assembly in 2011, Rauner took the opposite approach. He said the tax increase — which he always referred to as the “Pat Quinn-Mike Madigan tax increase” — had put Illinois’ economy into a tailspin and was the main cause behind Illinois being among the worst states for unemployment for most of Quinn’s time in office.
Rauner had faced intense criticism from those who said his framework for fixing Illinois – namely, reduce income taxes, revise sales tax, increase education and capital project spending – made little mathematical sense. An extremely optimistic assessment of Rauner’s plan still would leave Illinois at least $2 billion short in the current fiscal year and far more in years to follow.
But for all the mystery that surrounded his private equity business dealings, Rauner above all else portrayed himself as a deal-maker and a shrewd analyst. It’s likely that those qualities above all else appealed to voters who are eager to see constraint imposed upon the Democrat-controlled Legislature.
Helping Rauner’s campaign were a pair of controversies that severely damage Quinn’s longstanding image as a government reformer. First came a state auditor general’s report that showed a $54.5 million anti-violence program Quinn had spearheaded in August 2010 had wasted hundreds of thousands of dollars. Then came an investigation that showed Quinn’s administration had broken state patronage hiring laws for dozens of employees at the Illinois Department of Transportation.
A federal judge in October appointed a special monitor to oversee all future hiring at IDOT.
The 2014 gubernatorial election will go down in history not only as the most expensive campaign ever, but arguably the most suspenseful.
While Rauner had led Quinn by double-digit margins in polling throughout the summer, the last six weeks of the campaign became a contentious period during which both candidates blanketed the airwaves with increasingly hostile attack ads against each other.
The chart below shows various polls dating back to March. Note the wide gap throughout the summer and the sudden narrowing as the campaign intensified in September. Quinn and Rauner traded leads in polls conducted in October.
Matthew Dietrich is Reboot’s executive editor. An award-winning journalist, Dietrich is the former editorial page editor of the State Journal Register in Springfield. He believes in holding our politicians accountable. Read Dietrich’s take on the leadership vacuum that sent Illinois sinking. You can find Reboot on Facebook and on Twitter @rebootillinois.