In 2011, Emanuel won Chicago’s first competitive non-partisan mayoral election since the law was changed in 1995. A non-party contest (no primary) means if a candidate wins 50%+ 1 of the vote in the first round of voting – that’s it – there will be no round two. If no candidate garners the above majority – the top two finishers would face each other five weeks later in a run-off election.
Emanuel’s numbers in 2011 were impressive. Against three major opponents, he won 55.3% of the vote, carried forty of fifty city wards and beat the magic 50%+1 target by 31,135 votes.
His best vote regions were the near north lakefront and all the city’s African/American wards. In fact, Emanuel won every predominantly black ward with a vote majority. Keying his overwhelming African/American support was his “blink and nod” endorsement from President Barack Obama whose popularity among black voters easily trumped all local black leaders’ support for any Emanuel opponent.
In 2015, Emanuel must run on his four-year record, which complicates the campaign’s vital electoral question “Can Rahm hold his lakefront – African/American coalition together”? Clearly, whoever steps up as his main opponent(s) will impact this key political factor. Also complicating Emanuel’s 2015 election bid is that unlike 2011 the mayor must defend what he did and not just promise what he will do.
Potential “A” list Emanuel opponents are Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkleand to a lesser degree 2nd Ward Alderman Bob Fioretti. Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis (the media’s dream challenger) I believe will not run but will be a key player in any anti-Emanuel campaign.
All speculation aside, the big unknown is Preckwinkle. She is unopposed for re-election to be County Board President, she has had a solid run of favorable board president media coverage (in part due to the fact that she replaced former Board President Todd Stroger) and she has linked herself to city “progressives” without alienating long-time Democratic players – including those on her county board. In short, she has the standing, background and political growth potential to give Mayor Emanuel a real battle. Oh yes, she has toldEmanuel she will not run for Mayor in 2015 – but not lately.
Joseph P. Kennedy – the patriarch of the Kennedy clan said the following more than a half-century ago, “If the food is on the table – eat”. Meaning – if you have a chance for the top job – go for it and do not wait for a better opportunity. Yes, in Chicago being mayor trumps county board president (Anton Cermak, 1931 made the above jump – no one has gone the other way).
I believe Preckwinkle wants Emanuel’s job. I believe she is quietly seeking support. I also believe the big hold on her decision is the emotional and physical cost of battling Emanuel one-on-one.
Emanuel will not go gently into the night. He will use every resource he has to win re-election and though a somewhat suspect Sun-Times poll shows his citywide supportdwindling especially among minority voters – no one should ever underestimate Emanuel’s campaign skills, his intelligence and his raw energy to go against any challenger. And two more oh yes thoughts – Emanuel has a huge campaign war chest with vast growth potential and he will drain it to win another mayoral term. And of course, the unknown variable – will the President once again officially or, unofficially endorse his former chief of staff’s mayoral bid.
My last: Oh yes! Need to look again at the beginning of this article – re: Chicago’s financial situation.
Any mayoral challenger – including Preckwinkle – to be credible must identify any Emanuel mistakes, but also must show how he or she would do things differently. And to be blunt – there are no easy answers. Budgets, violence, schools, infrastructure, pensions – the list is nearly endless. Thus, I conclude with the following prediction – Yes, I believe Preckwinkle wants to be mayor and, yes she thinks she could give Emanuel a real fight buton the “no” side does she want to face for at least nearly four months – the toughest and roughest political fight of her life?
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Paul Green is Director of the Institute for Politics and Arthur Rubloff Professor of Policy Studies at Roosevelt University. He is also the Political Analyst for WGN Radio, guest columnist for Crain’s Chicago Business, and the author of several books and articles on Illinois and Chicago politics. His latest publications, co-authored with Mel Holli, are entitled World War II Chicago and The Mayors: The Chicago Political Tradition, 3rd edition. Green analyzed how each Republican gubernatorial candidate could possibly win the March primary.