Blogger Keith Koffler, whose White House Dossier website features a special section devoted to all things Michelle Obama, creates an equation in which the First Lady’s increased travel schedule, suddenly higher political profile, strong speaking skills and favorable poll numbers add up to a run for U.S. Senate against Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk in 2016.
Kirk, of course, holds Mrs. Obama’s husband’s former Senate seat, which has gone back and forth between Republican and Democratic occupancy in recent history (Kirk succeeded Democrat Barack Obama, who succeeded Republican Peter Fitzgerald, who succeeded Democrat Carole Moseley Braun.)
Koffler writes:
Speculation about a possible political future for Michelle Obama has naturally centered on the White House. But that’s the wrong place — at least for now.
Illinois has a Republican senator, Mark Kirk, and he is up for reelection in 2016. He’ll be formidable, particularly given his brave recovery from a stroke. But Illinois is a heavily Democratic state, and the race could be close.
No Illinois Democratic candidate would bring the star power and nationwide fundraising capacity that Obama would.
She has proven herself a superb speaker on behalf of her pet projects and is now a veteran campaigner for her husband. She’s also remained highly popular — even as the president’s ratings have plummeted.
She could represent the Democrats’ best chance to pick up a desperately needed — andwinnable — seat. A December 2012 Public Policy Polling survey put her ahead of Kirk, 51 percent to 40 percent. Democratic leaders’ pressure on her to run might get intense.
But the most acute pressure could come from within. Anyone who has listened to her speeches, particularly on the campaign trail, understands that she is a dedicated liberal, who believes unreservedly in the power of government to transform lives.
Obama views the battle between Republicans and Democrats as a struggle for the soul of the nation.
“Who are we?” she repeatedly asked while campaigning in 2012. She said the election result would affect the country “for decades.”
And Michelle Obama, unlike Hillary Clinton in New York, would have no worries about “carpet-bagging” were she to run. The Obamas still have their home in Chicago, where they are deeply rooted.
Writes Koffler:
The Senate looks like the perfect place for Obama. She could weigh in on any topic without having the executive responsibilities required of a governor or mayor —management reputedly not being one of her strong suits.
She would quickly become the most recognizable face in the Senate. Her fame and fundraising ability would command deference in a body that normally operates on seniority.
Whether the recent elevation of her profile suggests a plan to run is unclear, but she will be well positioned should she jump in.
Obama has stepped up her recent fundraising — holding two events for Democrats just this week and creating valuable chits she can call in should she run for office.
Unlike the Bill and Hillary Clinton, who did not keep a house in Arkansas when they came to Washington, or George W. and Laura Bush, who maintained a ranch in Texas they visited with great regularity, the Obamas have held onto an expensive home in Chicago — where they are almost never in residence.
The home, though, gives them a foothold in the state, where they continue to maintain residency. Both Obamas voted in Illinois in 2012, she by absentee ballot. Despite the first lady’s years in Washington, there would be no carpet bagging charges for her.
So, case closed, right?
Not so fast, say the Chicago media.
Chicago Sun-Times Washington Bureau Chief Lynn Sweet has a list of eight reasons why Michelle Obama won’t run for Senate. Among them:
1. She has given every signal that she is not interested in running for office through the years.
4. She rarely comes back to Illinois and when she does, it is just to Chicago.Downstaters have not seen her for years. Anyway, she does not like Chicago’s winters.
8. She is used to picking and choosing her shots and being in control of her time, which you can’t do as a member of Congress.
The whole list is here.
Crain’s Chicago Business political columnist Greg Hinz added his insights:
Ms. Obama certainly has raised her profile of late on the school lunch and other fronts. And a lot of Democrats think Mr. Kirk is vulnerable.
There’s no official White House reaction yet. But let’s get real here. Ms. Obama would be running while Barack Obama still sits in the Oval Office and with two daughters still in their teens. You can count on your fingers the number of nights she’s spent at her Chicago home since moving to that big white house. And other observers have speculated that the Obamas will move to New York City after his term is up.
Still, I have to say the lady is ambitious.
Hinz got no response when he sought official reaction from the White House, but he did offer this:
A top Obama confidant who asks not to be named is knocking down the speculation. “She is more likely to play linebacker for the Bears than to run for office,” that source says.
Such tantalizing speculation.
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Matthew Dietrich is Reboot’s executive editor. An award-winning journalist, Dietrich is the former editorial page editor of the State Journal Register in Springfield. He believes in holding our politicians accountable. Read Dietrich’s take on the leadership vacuum that sent Illinois sinking. You can find Reboot on Facebook and on Twitter @rebootillinois.