IS PRESIDENT OBAMA THE ACE UP THE SLEEVE FOR PAT QUINN’S REELECTION EFFORT?

Will that make President Barack Obama the ace up Gov. Pat Quinn’s sleeve in November?

Eric J. Ostermeier, a research associate at the University of Minnesota Humphrey School’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, conducted the study that looked at the past century’s data. Washington Post reporter Niraj Chokshi has more on the study and the current picture of the race between Quinn and Republican Bruce Rauner in Illinois.

Writes Chokshi:

Quinn is facing wealthy venture capitalist Bruce Rauner (R), who broke the state’s record for self-financing a gubernatorial campaign when his out-of-pocket spending hit $6 million in March, even before his successful primary win. The Chicago Tribune reported at the time that he is “perhaps the wealthiest candidate ever to run for public office in Illinois.” And that ability to spend and raise large amounts has Republicans optimistic about his prospects.

Only two of those six losses occurred in the past half-century, though: Incumbent Republican Mike Huckabee won easily in Arkansas in 1998 while Democrat Bill Clinton was in office; and Democrat Ann Richards won in a tight race in Texas during President George H.W. Bush’s time in the White House. Before Richards, the sitting president’s party won the gubernatorial race in his home state in ten consecutive elections.

A recent Gallup poll found that Obama enjoyed a 53.7 percent approval in Illinois, one of 11 states where the rate was above 50 percent. Quinn has made known to the White House that he would like the president’s help, though it’s not clear if he’s made a formal ask for assistance. But Obama’s very presence in the White House could be a good sign for Quinn.

Whether or not the White House actually helps Quinn with his reelection campaign remains to be seen, but Obama’s popularity in his adopted home state can only help Quinn, one of the most vulnerable governors in the nation according to many experts.

Ostermeier goes more into the current situation in his blog post explaining the findings of the study:

Quinn, along with one-term Republicans Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania and Paul LePage of Maine, are generally seen as the most vulnerable gubernatorial incumbents this cycle (with another half-dozen also in danger of losing their seats).

While one gubernatorial race does not determine the success or failure of the GOP in the midterm elections, a Republican victory in the top elected office in President Obama’s home state would naturally be a huge symbolic victory for the GOP coming out of 2014.

And as well it should. For very few presidents, even those with low approval ratings, have endured such a loss over the last century.

A Smart Politics study finds that the party of the sitting president has won his home state’s gubernatorial race 80 percent of the time over the last 100 years.

Governor Quinn is undoubtedly hoping that President Obama, while enduring administration-low approval ratings nationally, will remain popular enough in Illinois not to be a drag in the midterms to help him keep his job.

And that makes sense: presidents usually get a bit of a home state boost or benefit of the doubt vis-à-vis the rest of the nation, and thus the president’s party might not feel as much of the brunt of an unpopular president back home.

That played out to some extent in Illinois in 2010 when Quinn narrowly captured the governor’s seat by 0.9 points during the Republican tsunami. Obama’s approval rating was in the lower-mid 40s at that time.

Gallup reported earlier this year that Illinois was one of just 11 states in which the president had an approval rating north of 50 percent. And that’s good news for Quinn.

For more on the study, including historical examples of gubernatorial races since 1835 (Ostermeier’s data extends all the way back to then), check out Ostermeier’s blog post.

Party affiliation not only matters with the sitting President, but it matters to voters too.

NEXT ARTICLE: Poll: Regardless of the candidate, party affiliation matters with voters

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Brendan Bond is an editorial assistant at Reboot Illinois. He is a graduate of Loyola University, where he majored in journalism. Brendan takes a look each day at the Land of Lincoln Lowdown and it’s often pretty low. He examines the property tax rates that drive Illinoisans insane. You can find Reboot on Facebook and on Twitter @rebootillinois.