03/12/2014
Matt Dietrich
Executive editor
Reboot Illinois
Pollster We Ask America has been doing regular polling of likely Republican primary voters for the last three weeks, with respondents giving Bruce Rauner a growing lead each time.
We Ask America titled its Feb. 25 poll the “Von Rauner Express,” a reference to Rauner’s 18-point lead over Kirk Dillard, who ranked second.
This week’s entry is accompanied by a photo that telegraphs the pollster’s view on this race:
From the We Ask America website:
Is this still a ball game?
Since this is Tracking Tuesday at We Ask America, we decided to not only run our tracker but to also take away voters’ opportunity to say they’re undecided–a move we usually take when we’re within a week of the election.
So, after we asked participants to verify their registration and intent to vote in the Republican Primary, we asked this:
Clearly, it would take an enormous shift in the political universe’s primordial ooze for anyone in the field to catch Bruce Rauner. The big chunk of cash unions spent against him on negative ads may have had an effect on his long-term viability, but the Republican voting universe isn’t buying it.
We Ask America doesn’t exactly call the Republican primary for Rauner, but it comes pretty close. And it affirms the results of an earlier Chicago Tribune/WGN poll that showed Rauner with a big lead.
I don’t like the horse-race aspect of polling because I think it discourages people from voting by creating the impression that an election already is decided.
And as I’ve noted many times, Pat Quinn trailed Bill Brady in polling just days before the 2010 election. Quinn proved the pollsters wrong, though Brady’s edge back then was about as razor thin as the 32,000 vote total he lost by a few days later.
Here is more about Super PAC activity in the Republican race for governor.
Matthew Dietrich is Reboot’s executive editor. An award-winning journalist, Dietrich is the former editorial page editor of the State Journal Register in Springfield. He believes in holding our politicians accountable. Read Dietrich’s take on the leadership vacuum that sent Illinois sinking. You can find Reboot on Facebook at and on Twitter @rebootillinois.