BRADY’S POLL HAS GOOD NEWS… FOR BRADY

02/27/2014

Matt Dietrich

Executive editor

Reboot Illinois

Bill Brady

Yesterday I shared a new We Ask America poll on the Republican gubernatorial primary that supported Sen. Kirk Dillard’s assertion that he’s in second place in the four-candidate race.

It came a week after Dillard called on Sen. Bill Brady and Treasurer Dan Rutherford to drop out of the race so he could face Bruce Rauner (far and away the leader in all recent polling) in a two-candidate primary on March 18.

Now Brady is out with his own poll that he says is further proof that he is the candidate with the best shot at beating Rauner in a one-on-one contest. The survey of 831 likely Republican primary voters, conducted by McKeon & Associates last week, still has Rauner as the candidate most would for if the primary was today, with Brady in second.

Its line of questioning reinforces what has become a dominant theme for Brady in recent weeks: That Rauner is not a true Republican, that Rauner’s friendship with Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel make him vulnerable with the Republican base and that Brady — as a true conservative — has the best chance of defeating Rauner. And it comes a week afteranother poll that showed Rauner leading Dillard in Dillard’s own Senate district.

“We believe that support for Mr. Rauner is declining as more Illinois voters become aware of his ties to Democrats, his business dealings and his positions on issues important to them,” Brady said in a statement released with the poll.  “I am the one reliable Republican who can win and who can beat Pat Quinn in November.”

The poll was commissioned by Brady, so take it as you like.  Here it is:

2014 Illinois

831 Interviews with registered voters who plan to vote in Illinois Republican Primary election

Conduct February 18-19

Accuracy level +/- 3.9%

The survey was conducted by phone with registered voters in Illinois. It was conducted by telephone which allows interviewers to conduct surveys with people who list mobile phones as their primary number. More than 39% of the interviews were conducted with mobile users. The sample used for this research was drawn from all registered voters in Illinois. The interviews were conducted with respondents who were asked which primary they planned to vote in if any. Those who chose the Republican primary were interviewed for this survey.

The question – On a scale of one to ten, with one meaning NOT AT ALL interested and ten meaning VERY interested, how interested would you say you are in voting in the March 18 Republican primary election for governor tracks voter intensity.

9% 1-4

12% 5-7

23% 8-9

56% 10

Q: I’m going to read you a list of Illinois political figures. Please tell me

whether you have a Strongly Favorable, Favorable, Unfavorable or

Strongly Unfavorable opinion of each person.

(Do not read: Can’t Rate and Never Heard Of)

                                 SF     F    UF  SUF C.R. N.H

Bill Brady                9% 35% 18% 7% 20% 12%

Kirk Dillard            9% 25% 22% 7% 18% 19%

Dan Rutherford    7% 22% 23% 20% 19% 9%

Bruce Rauner      15% 20% 19% 14% 18% 14%

Q: Would you be much more likely, somewhat more likely somewhat less likely or not likely at all to vote for a Republican candidate for Governor of Illinois who …

Made Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel $18 million over 3 years and their families vacation together

More likely 2%

Somewhat more likely 6%

Somewhat less likely 18%

Not likely at all 50%

Doesn’t matter 11%

Don’t know 13%

Didn’t know a company of his was paying Blagojevich political fixer Stuart Levine $300,000 a year while Levine was on a board voting to make candidate millions

More likely 2%

Somewhat more likely 8%

Somewhat less likely 20%

Not likely at all 49%

Doesn’t matter 11%

Don’t know 10%

Made political commercial for Barack Obama

More likely 5%

Somewhat more likely 4%

Somewhat less likely 7%

Not likely at all 55%

Doesn’t matter 5%

Don’t know 24%

Q: If the Republican primary election for Governor of Illinois were to be held today, for whom would you vote?

24% Bill Brady (Voter intensity: 8-9, 23%; 10,30%)

3% Dan Rutherford (Voter intensity: 8-9, 2%; 10, 4%)

13% Kirk Dillard (Voter intensity: 8-9,10%; 10, 11%)

32% Bruce Rauner (Voter intensity: 8-9, 40%; 10, 34%)

28%  Don’t Know (Voter intensity: 8-9, 25%; 10, 22%)

If you liked this post, we’ve got more coverage of the 2014 election:

In the final weeks of the campaign, the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination has become a fight over who’s in second place.

Last week Bruce Rauner put another $1.3 million of his own money into his campaign. See how the other candidates stack up on fundraising here.

A barrage of negative ads hasn’t damaged Rauner’s image with potential voters.

Outside groups are getting into the Republican primary campaign in a big way, and no candidate is immune from attack. See that ads and find out who’s behind them on this edition of “Spin Cycle.”

Follow the 2014 gubernatorial race through the cartoons of the Chicago Tribune’s Scott Stantis in this gallery from the past year.

Matthew Dietrich is Reboot’s executive editor. An award-winning journalist, Dietrich is the former editorial page editor of the State Journal Register in Springfield. He believes in holding our politicians accountable. Read Dietrich’s take on the leadership vacuum that sent Illinois sinking. You can find Reboot on Facebook at and on Twitter @rebootillinois.